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St. Pauli vs RB Leipzig - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Bundesliga Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 16

Bundesliga - Gameweek 16

Tuesday, 27 Jan 2026 • 20:30

St. Pauli

1 : 1

RB Leipzig

Goals

66'
0 : 1
Yan Diomande
0 : 1
Yan Diomande66'
Martijn Kaars
1 : 1
90'
90'Martijn Kaars
1 : 1

Game Review

In a tightly contested Bundesliga match, St. Pauli and RB Leipzig shared the spoils with a 1-1 draw. The result was somewhat unexpected given Leipzig's higher standing in the league, but St. Pauli's resilience at home proved decisive. The game saw its first breakthrough in the 66th minute when Yan Diomande (GAP +3.3%) put RB Leipzig ahead. His goal came after a period of sustained pressure from the visitors, who were looking to capitalize on their superior league position. However, St. Pauli, known for their fighting spirit, responded in dramatic fashion. In the 90th minute, substitute Martijn Kaars found the back of the net, ensuring the home side earned a valuable point. Tactically, RB Leipzig's approach was to dominate possession and utilize the width provided by players like David Raum (GAP +5.6%), who was instrumental in creating chances from the left flank. Meanwhile, St. Pauli focused on a compact defensive setup, looking to hit on the counter. The introduction of Martijn Kaars late in the game proved to be a masterstroke, as his fresh legs and attacking impetus helped turn the tide. In terms of lineup changes, both teams made several substitutions during the match. St. Pauli's manager opted for a more dynamic approach in the latter stages, bringing on Mathias Rasmussen, Jackson Irvine, Mathias Pereira-Lage, and Abdoulie Ceesay alongside Kaars. RB Leipzig's head coach introduced Ezechiel Banzuzi, Tidiam Gomis, Conrad Harder, and Benjamin Henrichs to maintain their attacking threat. The draw leaves St. Pauli in a position to build on this momentum, as they continue to fight for every point in the Bundesliga. For RB Leipzig, the result is a slight setback in their pursuit of the top spots, but they remain well-positioned in the league standings. Post-match reactions highlighted the resilience of St. Pauli, with fans and pundits alike praising their never-say-die attitude. RB Leipzig, while disappointed not to secure all three points, will look to bounce back in their next fixture.

Lineups

St. Pauli

PosPlayer
GK
Nikola Vasilj
DEF
Hauke Wahl
DEF
James Sands
DEF
Karol Mets
DEF
Manolis Saliakas
DEF
Tomoya Ando
MID
Eric Smith
MID
Joel Fujita
MID
Danel Sinani
FWD
Arkadiusz Pyrka
FWD
Ricky-Jade Jones

Substitutes

67'Martijn Kaars
for Ricky-Jade Jones
76'Mathias Pereira-Lagefor Danel Sinani
76'Jackson Irvinefor James Sands
76'Mathias Rasmussenfor Joel Fujita
88'Abdoulie Ceesayfor Manolis Saliakas

RB Leipzig

PosPlayer
GK
Peter Gulacsi
DEF
Willi Orban
DEF
David Raum
DEF
El Chadaille Bitshiabu
MID
Christoph Baumgartner
MID
Ridle Baku
MID
Xaver Schlager
MID
Nicolas Seiwald
MID
Antonio Nusa
FWD
Rômulo Cardoso da Cruz
FWD
Yan Diomande

Substitutes

64'Conrad Harderfor Rômulo Cardoso da Cruz
85'Ezechiel Banzuzifor Christoph Baumgartner
85'Tidiam Gomisfor Antonio Nusa
90'Benjamin Henrichsfor Yan Diomande
Difference Maker Star: Top 3 players of their team

League Table after the game

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
4RB Leipzig1911353725+1236
L
W
L
W
D
17St. Pauli1935111732-1514
D
L
L
D
D

Last Games

St. Pauli

vsHamburger SV
0 - 0
@Borussia Dortmund
2 - 3
@VfL Wolfsburg
1 - 2
@FSV Mainz 05
0 - 0
vsFC Heidenheim
2 - 1

RB Leipzig

@FC Heidenheim
3 - 0
vsFC Bayern München
1 - 5
vsSC Freiburg
2 - 0
vsBayer 04 Leverkusen
1 - 3
@Union Berlin
1 - 3

Head-to-Head

27 Jan 2026
St. Pauli1 - 1RB Leipzig
27 Jan 2026St. Pauli
1 - 1
RB Leipzig
09 Feb 2025
RB Leipzig2 - 0St. Pauli
09 Feb 2025RB Leipzig
2 - 0
St. Pauli
22 Sept 2024
St. Pauli0 - 0RB Leipzig
22 Sept 2024St. Pauli
0 - 0
RB Leipzig

Bundesliga

Gameweek 16

09 Jan • 20:30
Eintracht Frankfurt
Borussia Dortmund
3 - 3
10 Jan • 15:30
SC Freiburg
Hamburger SV
2 - 1
10 Jan • 15:30
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
2 - 2
10 Jan • 15:30
FC Heidenheim
1. FC Köln
2 - 2
10 Jan • 18:30
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
VfB Stuttgart
1 - 4
11 Jan • 15:30
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Augsburg
4 - 0
11 Jan • 17:30
FC Bayern München
VfL Wolfsburg
8 - 1
27 Jan • 20:30
St. Pauli
RB Leipzig
1 - 1
27 Jan • 20:30
Werder Bremen
1899 Hoffenheim
0 - 2

What is GAP?

What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?

Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.

What is GAP?

GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.